Betting on Barack
Now I know that Mid Terms are just barely over, but apparently, Americans, just like the Liberals (gospel according to Macleans) love speculating about the next big political race.
So, here I am about to boldly go and declare - based on nothing more that watching Countdown with the sound off while bouncing up and down on the treadmill - that Barack Obama will win the Democratic presidential nomination. There you go, Ladies and Gentlemen, you heard it on this blog first. I am either bright enough or stupid enough to put my money on Barack this early in the game...
... I'm just hoping that by that time, the political winds of change will have blown through my home and native land and that I'll be able to watch Barack savoring the sweet taste of democratic nomination victory from above the 45th parallel...
posted by JJ @ 9:38 PM
12 comments
12 Comments:
Apparently Hillary is ramping up her campaign, making renewed calls to Dems in New Hampshire, to try and temper the Obama buzz. I saw piece of Barack in New Hampshire, where one longtime party organizer said she had "never seen anything like this". Star power galore, media darling, articulate. The big moment, when the media turns on him, and they will.
Yeah, I've heard that too... that basically he's going through a media honeymoon right now and that at any moment the bubble will burst... that being said - I stand by my prediction - ridiculous as it may be...
jj
I don't disagree, Obama is the real deal.
Whats your opinion of Obama, JJ?
I know the liberal folks at Kos are a bit annoyed at him because they feel he "triangulates" too much and waffles on positions rather then takes firm stands.
If he was running in Canada, what would be the political equivalent for him be ideologically in your view?
Hmmm - though I was bold enough to declare his victory - I'm not quite ready to offer a substantive view of him...
My democrat political operative friend summed it up quite nicely (in response to me saying that I wasn't sure what exactly Barack stood for), he said, that Barack has a great narrative, that he represents bridging divides - and that America is yearning for great personal narratives and jonesing for some high quality bridge building ...
In other words, that is political-speak for he waffles ;)
I would call him trying to position himself in a "centrist" mode.. which is a dirty word for some liberals/progressives down there.
I dont think the centrist part bugs them.. but the waffling does. Remember when Paul Martin got accused of trying to be all things to all people? I think thats what the liberal/progresive folks in the US liberal blogosphere accuse Obama of being.
Still, anything is better then what they have now...
I'm with you - Obama for President!!!
As JJ's democratic political operative friend, I would not call Obama centrist, here is a link to an interesting website that evaluates US lawmakers records and comes up with a category for them http://www.ontheissues.org/
They call Barack populist leaning liberal.
Unfortunately, most people don't vote for president based on issues alone, it is issues along with people's "emotional connection" with the candidate. That is why Kerry and Gore flopped so badly, if it were issues alone that people voted on the US would have Gore Presidency for the last 6 years.
Barack has the perfect narrative, half white and half black, grew up poor, etc. that is so emotionally appealing to folks. Plus, without political baggage he is untainted from the baggage that H Clinton has.
Anon Democratic Operative:
That may be true - what you describe of Obama - but you must be aware of the issues the liberal blogosphere and netroots has with him, if you ever read sites like Daily Kos and myDD and others on a consistent basis. (And dont call them radical lefties either - I've read them long enough to know they arent all hippies over there.
The thing going for Obama is that the netroots generally dislike Hillary worse, and their primary standard-bearer Feingold isnt running as they hoped for.. so they may support him by default and because as I said, any Democrat would be an improvement over what you have how and who you'll be running against.
scott t,
though I would not call the Daily Kos folks totally radical left wingers, I do have to say that there a lot of liberals in Dem party that don't share the Daily Kos brand of liberalism.
That aside, you are totally correct about your assertion that Obama is liked better than Hillary in those circles. But also keep this in mind, lefties on Daily Kos are generally the same folks who are part of Move On the Org and who supported and fueled Howard Dean's rise in 2004 (see how Dean falled later), they are important of the Democratic base, but because they are uncompromising in nature, they can only act as spoiler, but these folks will not be main folks picking the Dem nominee.
Dean also was propelled to the Chairman of the Democtratic Party , it could be argued, by those exact same netroots.
Those same netroots also contribute a lot of money to candidates they like; it would be dangerous for the "Beltway" pundits and operatives in the Democratic Party to take them lightly, or for granted, or worse, to dismiss them, or to demonize them (like trying to associate MoveOn.org with being a radical organization, as you seem to be implying - correct me if I am wrong).
I wouldnt say they are uncompromising - what they want is Democrats to act like Democrats, and not always wilt or flee in fear everytime a Republican says "boo" at them.
(And yes, I am in total sympathy with them if you can't tell. The ironic thing is a lot of the policies they hold dear would fit perfectly well in the Liberal Party up here - a "middle party" for Canada... yet down there they get classified as "radical leftie liberals" which is also a misnomer... as Markos of Kos identifies himself to be more of a libertarian democrat - witness his site's support of Jon Tester and Jim Webb.. hardly flaming liberals.)
Obama announces:
Check out the link!
http://pumpernickie.blogspot.com/2006/12/obama-announces.html
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